difficult to convince

 It should be noted that the supply of new houses like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen has been very little. For example, Beijing sold in 2016 land, corresponding to less than 20,000 homes, of which less than 0.4 million commercial housing units, the other is the nature of the lottery from the housing (draw the prize, equivalent to 500,000 or even more than one million). And Beijing before the annual increase of 100,000 new homes did not block the price of a round up. For the replica watches land is fully planned, second - hand housing prices are fully market - oriented.

    
3. The property market is sluggish and the stock market is bleak

    
China's last five rounds of inventory cycle, accompanied by three wave bull market, five wave bear market or bear market continuation. House prices rose, the stock market is not necessarily cattle; real estate downturn, the stock market 100% bear market, is the last five rounds of the inventory cycle of the truth. Ancient and modern, why the downturn when the stock market is more bleak? Any person throws any explanation, it is estimated that it is difficult to convince the public. This article does not attempt to explain it.

    
4. RMB exchange rate, the dollar is expected to continue to depreciate to 7.3 or so

    
Exchange rate, is a very big issue, involving a wide range. Many people have been based on the RMB against the currency of the
replica watches uk exchange rate parity, that is, "RMB real effective exchange rate", roughly calculated and expected the yuan against the dollar further depreciation to 7.3 level. In other words, the RMB against the dollar depreciated to about 7.3, the other regions of the currency is basically not devalued, holding the yuan to the United States outside the country consumption investment, and 3,5 years ago may not change much.

    
5. China's bond market, and huge debt size

    
At present, China's monetary policy, on the one hand by the RMB exchange rate restrictions on the hands and feet, on the other hand, was to continue to limit the real estate cooling loose hands and feet, unless the bond fell enough ruthless, trendy bull market, in the short term is unlikely The. The past is
rolex replica a wave of monetary easing, the beginning of a substantial force starting point is in October 2014 (cut interest rates, downgrade, down payment, three down), happened to be the wave of 18-24 months of real estate rose starting point.

  

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